There is nothing that's stopping China from doing that and there is very little the united states can do to affect it except at a very very great cost to both sides.
Know how this is going to play out the only question is who's got the most will Malcolm in terms of firepower though china has some very impressive weaponry yeah.
They're developing this very long-range strike capability that is designed to be able to strike at the u.s and its allies one of the systems they're developing is the df-26 which is an intermediate-range ballistic missile.
That can strike at u.s carriers as far out as Guam if they can sink aircraft carriers that's a huge loss of life each aircraft carrier has about 5000 personnel on board so the potential for the Chinese to impose a huge cost on us and its allies including Australia is very real yes yeah china's president xi Jinping ensures.
His country's military might is there for his people and the world to see and adding to his war footing off the coast in disputed territory.
China has built artificial islands loaded with defensive hardware David Brophy argues china is simply defending its coastline just as we do in Australia.
We do have to remember this is all playing out along china's coastline to talk about deterring china what that is effectively saying is that we want to maintain a favorable military balance right up to your doorstep.
That will be able to dominate in a situation of conflict anything that takes place right off your coast now just imagine if a country.
On the other side of the world said that to Australia that we want to prevent you from being able to control militarily the territory off your coast.
I think we in Australia would regard that as a hostile posture and dr Brophy cautions an all-out war between the world's superpowers could well involve nuclear weapons.
I don't think there's any way we can confidently say that this can be contained in a small war which I think some people imagine.
That it can be that there's some sort of little touch that we could have in the Taiwan strait I think that that's one possible scenario.
But another and another is all-out nuclear barbarism and America maintains the option of the first-use nuclear strike which suggests to me that it wants to position itself in such a way to say to China.
We are willing to fight a nuclear war with you we are willing to lob nuclear weapons at you when it comes to something this important.
This is potentially devastating to the globe you don't take anything off the table indeed Jim Fennell believes the u.s needs to maintain its credible threat of using tactical nuclear weapons in a first strike.
I want a ping and the next person and the next person to always wonder hey is there a nuclear missile coming down on my head right now.
I want them to think that that doesn't mean I want to do it but I want to be able to rationally let them know we have that capability and if we get pressed too much.
You think you're the angry guy with the ax you have not seen anything yet is this when you come out and just say that's just plain nuts.
I just find this whole discussion completely depressing I think everybody around this table would agree we don't want war because if it is a war between these superpowers nobody knows.
Where the nuclear threshold is going to be nobody knows what is that point when one side or the other will start to use nuclear weapons it is that serious that I think.
We should all be focused here in Australia about de-escalating things and how do we do everything that we can to prevent armed conflict and to make sure that.
The united states and china can find some way to live with each other but dr Brophy believes that china sees us as America's closest ally.
There's even a possibility that Australia may become a nuclear target I hate to speculate about this situation because it's so horrible to think about but if china and America do enter into a conflict situation china wants to take a step up the esca ladder without necessarily.
Striking us mainland then a country like Australia becomes an option you test the waters you know sending a message that they're serious.
But without taking the risk of hitting America directly because of the potential for that to produce massive nuclear retaliation do you see that.
No I mean I think it's pretty clear to the Chinese that if the Chinese strike Australian territory with WMDs that are treated as an attack on us the u.s would retaliate with overwhelming force frighteningly Australia's forward planners including professor Kilcullen.
Who leads the future operations research group also don't rule out a nuclear strike from China if it does go kinetic as we call it you know.
If we get to battlefield shooting between us and china and it reaches that tactical nuclear threshold I think it is quite likely that Australia would take a nuclear hit fairly early in that conflict now you know.
I think strategists on both sides don't want this to go nuclear but if it does then that would put Australia in the firing line pretty quickly.
The Chinese know that if they use nuclear weapons we will use nuclear arms back and that will be the end of the PRC is right for them to understand.
What it means to cross the nuclear frontier our strong relations with America including the concerns of the Australian agreement means that we have joined hands with each other in all greatness.
The conflict of the last century includes the most unpopular cost and punishments like Vietnam Iraq and Afghanistan Our experts believe that.
A war with China if the start of the Taiwan invasion will involve Australia because whatever America does we will follow I think Australia is acting in a way that shows it is willing to go and a strong American strategy that is an Australian strategy.
Given that any war between China and the US will take place on our premises this is a conflict that Australia will be able to avoid even if.
We want to get closer to the military including American intelligence bases in our northern pine gulf.
Location and northwest of Cape Town on the coast of Western Australia both can be critical of any Chinese territorial conflict where you do not know immediately any potential conflict.
The situation is starting and that, unfortunately, may include Australian soil may be used in the conflict before the Australian people say in that question.
The fact is that the government -Australia has no control over what happens to these bases or any defense decisions that may arise from them in the face of war over our Australian property.
The ground is true it is not that the eviction order can be made and we will not know about it. We call these things integrated services but the truth is you know members of the American Congress have more oversight and knowledge of what is happening in these institutions.
Then, members of the Australian parliament, we must realize that we are at a very critical question that any society can face the question of whether or not to go to war may ultimately be determined by us no matter.
What the future holds for war. The editors agree that it will be an unprecedented line in history where Australia could be crippled before a single shot is almost certainly.
One of the first things that will happen in a major dispute between the US and China will the release of GPS. crippling program many of us military systems rely on the fact.
That in the event you can not conduct transactions in Australia you can not refuel your car at the gas station because it all depends on the GPS Australia economy.
We are very affected in the first few minutes we will strive to get enough fuel and oil so it is really tempting to think that we can just sit outside and ignore.
This but the truth is we will not be able to do so is one of the situations where you may not be interested in war but war is interesting to you and there is no way.
We can avoid that but that its importance has been increased which is the only requirement imposed on the concern in Australia or on us that there is a consultation.
On the issue of conflict why I think we should stay out that this will not be the Taiwan war or the democratic war, it will be the rise of us china the conflict in my mind about economic interests political domination in the regions of the world.
I do not see in the end a high standard of morality sorry I do not agree with David in other words David's the preferred option and consider the strategic consequences of doing so
Angus split is fine so.
We are alone in the whole meaning of the word alliance always a living agreement the fact is that we exist if we do not conflict with Taiwan.
Where Japan has recently volunteered to enter if japan is united. the provinces are in there and we are not on the road
it is the only alliance of the ages for any real purpose.
But will ordinary Australians be able to even say that we are joining the war and China, Clinton affirmed Australia's involvement in any conflict does not need a vote in parliament is that right?
The decision to invest in the military is a decision of the prime minister who tells the minister of defense and that is why, therefore, the Australian people.
Those who do not get a debate on this make the only argument that happens is what happens here thank you?
Yes because my whole point is that um everything we talk about is very good on many levels to the average Australian person, yes the last time the Australian Defense Force was involved in the most heated conflict in Korea.
We were 20 years old. years in Afghanistan and the Taliban did not even have an air force that greatly worried our experts about the impact the war with China could have on one and a half million Australian Chinese after all during World War II the Japanese Australians were still alive. where for more than 50 years they were collected and imprisoned.
All those social effects have not been included among the natives or the people who look like the natives are harassed on the streets calls from the extreme right and the edges, uh to be included in the competition camps.
Are you all afraid that the Australian Chinese will be seen as enemies inside everyone who looks strangely Chinese if you know there is a war with China what Clinton does not mean the idea of concentration camps.
you know Real hope you know john I will see that there is no way to fight racism to equip foreign policy and military policy to deal with China.
But the big question is in the international tournament between China and America who can win there is no better way to put it than the Chinese.
If they don't get it they have put us in a position where they can probably defeat us in certain situations depending on how the war took place former naval intelligence chief Newsham was fought in the waters around Taiwan and now.
They have found a naval force bigger than ours and just to give. you have one feeling of the south china sea which is a hotbed of activity now the Chinese probably can't put 10 ships in the water for everyone Americans can send we have looked down on john lee.
Yes, we have looked down on the Chinese consistently over the past few decades we are no longer doing that, and certainly, the battle in Taiwan straits china can come out victorious military china preparing for war in Taiwan for over 30 years.
I mean we are talking about a situation that might arouse you who knows environmental issues economic issues I think you know we have the same meaning just to think that the world would be the same as it was just as long as China is in charge of Taiwan do.
We take it as usual that America will win any kind of war they may not win but in fact, they should prepare as much as possible to try to wage war.
The line here is because it is very important if we just stop throwing up our hands and say well Taiwan alone so we give china that century that wants to end those war warnings tonight saying we have two serious conflicts.
Questions to consider should be prepared to allow china to simply take over Taiwan as it has announced that it will and will do so quickly and in that case, we are happy to live with the consequences of inactivity.
Or there are some basic assumptions we are prepared to make
to face the prospect of a world war or as we have discussed tonight are we in great danger of speaking together with the thing that I have a problem with is the idea.
That China wants to rule China wants to fully protect its interests but the idea that China is a black power wants to take over.
The world and conquer everyone, I don't think tangible evidence of that and it is good to have this debate but we must ensure that we conduct the debate in a way that does not provoke fear and anger, and anxiety among the people.
Australian people because if we do that it puts us on the right track which leads directly to all the bad things we talked about today David when china takes Taiwan or tries to do nothing right I think when things get hot think.
We need to stay out I think we need to ask everyone involved to stop and pray they do I think about the future of humanity we need to escape the idea.
That the world is just a dog-eating and the only way to resolve words through military war -in China to attack Taiwan results so if the United States is Australia said we will not get involved that greatly increases.
The likelihood that China will tend to use force in the so-called solution to the Taiwan issue if it puts us at risk of defending Taiwan remembering.
That it is a free western democracy. In Australia, we will be negligent in our responsibilities as our friends if we go back and do nothing.
I think it is incumbent on our current government to commend and make a decision to intervene with the United States to protect Taiwan and Clinton.
What is your message to the people of Australia should understand that the Chinese government's commitment is well expressed and I believe it is true.
That they intend to take Taiwan peacefully or war and question say what is happening not only in the region but in the Australian community as a result.
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